SpaceX shares climb following Morgan Stanley’s $300 target endorsement
The SpaceX stock target at Morgan Stanley is $300 per share, and analyst Adam Jonas reiterated it with…
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating on SpaceX, maintaining a $300 per share stock target in a note released on Sunday. SpaceX shares closed up 7.63% at $171.09 on October 5, meaning the $300 target represents approximately 75% upside from that level. This bullish call from Morgan Stanley coincided with Elon Musk confirming discussions between SpaceX and TSMC regarding the Terafab chip project.
SpaceX Stock Target, $300 Forecast and TSMC Talks Explained
During overnight trading, the SpaceX stock price traded between $158.62 and $172.47, resting at $172.21 at the time of writing. Trading volume reached roughly 134.4 million shares, exceeding the average of 91.3 million. The $300 SpaceX stock target stands considerably higher than the 52-week high of $225.64 and the consensus one-year estimate of $227.44.
Why Morgan Stanley Keeps Its SpaceX Stock Target At $300
In his note titled тАЬSPCX $159: Cheap and Getting Cheaper,тАЭ Jonas noted that at a $159 share price, the stock trades at roughly 30 times estimated 2028 EV/EBIT, compared to about 16 times for mega-cap AI enablers. When adjusted for growth, that valuation decreases to roughly 0.3 times, sitting nearly 40% below the peer median.
Adam Jonas stated:
тАЬWe think that over the next few weeks (ahead of Starship Flight 15), investors can take advantage of a unique opportunity to buy shares that look unusually cheap.тАЭ
At the $159 valuation, the bank assigns $127 per share to the Space and Connectivity units and attributes approximately $32 per share to AI. This division forms the core of Morgan StanleyтАЩs argument, meaning the $300 price target relies heavily on the success of the AI segment.
SpaceX TSMC Talks Bring A New Chip Angle
On October 3, Musk verified via X that TerafabтАФa chip venture supported by SpaceX and TeslaтАФis engaged in preliminary conversations with TSMC to manufacture semiconductors for SpaceX, Tesla, and xAI.
Elon Musk offered the following comment:
тАЬJust discussions, but something may come of it.тАЭ
As TSMC has not issued a statement and no official contract, timeline, or financial figures exist yet, these discussions currently serve as a supplementary development rather than a fundamental pillar for the $300 target.
Starship Flight 15 Is The Next Big Test
Jonas remarked:
тАЬWe believe future AI product releases, Starship progress, and additional neocloud contracts showing continued pricing around $30-50/watt are all upside-skewed catalysts that can push the stock closer to our $300/share price target.тАЭ
Upcoming milestones include Starship Flight 15 scheduled for late October or early November. Jonas noted that a successful catch of the ship could represent the most significant positive catalyst since the company’s IPO, alongside third-quarter earnings anticipated around November 3. Each of these events could influence the direction of the stock target.
With trailing EPS standing at -$1.10, the $300 valuation is dependent on future profitability projected years ahead. Meanwhile, TD Cowen analyst John Blackledge initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $200 target, providing a more conservative perspective in the valuation debate. Investors following the Morgan Stanley thesis must watch for Starship milestones and AI agreements to materialize on schedule, given that test flight outcomes can trigger sharp fluctuations in the share price.
Frequently Asked Questions
01What is Morgan Stanley’s price target for SpaceX stock?
Morgan Stanley has maintained a $300 per share price target for SpaceX, backed by an Overweight rating.
02What are the upcoming catalysts for SpaceX stock?
Key catalysts include Starship Flight 15 in late October or early November, upcoming third-quarter earnings around November 3, and potential advancements in AI products and neocloud contracts.
03Are there any official agreements between SpaceX and TSMC?
No formal contracts, timelines, or financial details have been established. Elon Musk confirmed that the Terafab venture is merely in early discussions with TSMC.
